Trade between South Africa and the United States is experiencing a paradoxical development in 2025. While Washington is increasing surcharges and the AGOA preferential agreement has come to an end, South African exports to the American market have nevertheless recorded spectacular growth.
Between January and October, they increased by 37%, from R12.4 billion to R17 billion. This performance is largely due to the surge in prices of precious metals, for which global demand remains strong.
Since the beginning of 2025, the United States has imposed a series of taxes that hit the South African economy hard: 25 to 50% on steel and aluminum, 25% on the automobile sector, and above all a universal tax of 30% on all South African products since August. Added to this is the disappearance of AGOA, which until then guaranteed duty-free access for many sectors, including automobiles, agriculture and textiles.
Despite these obstacles, some exporters are adapting. Companies offering processed or high value-added products manage to partially absorb surcharges, while raw materials –often exempt – maintain a significant trade flow.
Gold and precious metals boost exports
The main driver of export growth remains the boom in precious metals, particularly gold. Between January and October, these exports reached R48.4 billion, an increase of 70%. The price of gold, which exceeded $4,000 per ounce amid geopolitical tensions, an international banking crisis and distrust of the dollar, strongly supported South African revenues.
This dynamic allowed the country to record a trade surplus of R15.6 billion in October, despite the increase in energy imports due to fluctuations in world oil prices.
Domestically, several economic indicators are trending upwards. Unemployment fell to 31.9%, its lowest level since 2024, with 248,000 jobs created in the third quarter. South Africa also recorded four consecutive quarters of growth, bringing GDP growth to 2.1% year-on-year. Sectors in difficulty, such as mining and construction, are finally showing a slight recovery.
Persistent political and trade uncertainties
While the figures are encouraging, the risks remain high. The US "AGOA 2.0" project introduces strict political conditions that could complicate bilateral relations. The automotive sector, particularly dependent on access to the American market, is already seeking to diversify its outlets in Europe and on the African continent.
China could offer an alternative, but Chinese demand will not necessarily compensate for the potential loss of the US market, particularly for value-added products.
The exceptional performance of South African exports in 2025 reflects both the strength of the mining sectors and the volatility of global markets. However, it masks a structural dependence on raw materials. To secure its growth trajectory, South Africa will need to diversify its economy, modernize its logistics infrastructure and establish a new stable trade framework with the United States.
