The Israeli parliament (Knesset) on Wednesday approved a bill to dissolve itself, which could bring forward the next general election by a few weeks, an election which polls predict Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will lose.
When will the elections be held?
No date has been set yet. Israel is supposed to hold elections every four years, but it holds early elections more often, the last one being in November 2022, and the next election is scheduled to be held no later than October 27.
After the vote to dissolve parliament, members will have to agree on a date. Political analysts in Israel say elections are likely to be held in the first half of September, but they could also take place earlier than the deadline set for late October/November.
Why is the Knesset voting to dissolve itself?
The vote comes now because a faction of ultra-Orthodox Jews, a traditional political ally of Netanyahu, said this month that it no longer considers Netanyahu a partner and will seek early elections.
The ultra-Orthodox leaders said they were doing so because the coalition government had failed to fulfill its promise to pass a law exempting their community from mandatory service in the Israeli army. Opposition parties have also long sought to oust Netanyahu's government.
An attempt to do so last June failed, and success this time, even if it only brings forward the election by a few weeks, could give momentum to the opposition campaign and limit the coalition government's ability to push through any controversial legislation until then.
In an attempt to control the process, the coalition government submitted its own bill on May 13 to dissolve the Knesset.
What will happen next?
If the bill to dissolve the Knesset passes the initial vote, it will be referred to a committee to agree on an election date. It will then return for final approval, requiring a majority of 61 votes out of 120 Knesset members. The process could be quick or take several weeks.
What do the opinion polls show?
Less than a year after his return to the political scene in 2022 at the head of the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, confidence in Netanyahu’s security was shattered by a surprise attack launched by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
Since then, opinion polls have consistently shown that Netanyahu's ruling coalition lacks a parliamentary majority. However, there is also the possibility that opposition parties will fail to form a coalition, which would leave Netanyahu at the head of a caretaker government until the political deadlock is broken.
This has happened before, as Israel witnessed a series of inconclusive voting processes prior to the 2022 elections, holding five rounds in less than four years.
Who is Netanyahu's rival?
Netanyahu's main rival is Naftali Bennett, his former advisor who ousted him in the 2021 elections and then became prime minister. Netanyahu is Israel's longest-serving politician.
Bennett, a right-wing politician, joined forces with Yair Lapid, the center-left opposition leader, to form a new party called Together, and is now very close in popularity to Netanyahu's Likud party. Other contenders gaining ground in the polls include Gadi Eisenkot, the former chief of staff and centrist minister.
The rivals are running election campaigns with similar programs, seeking to rally hesitant voters who are dissatisfied with Netanyahu, with messages calling for mending the rift and putting Israel back on the right track after the shock of the events of October 7 and the wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran that severely damaged the Israeli economy and Israel’s international standing.
What other factors are involved?
Netanyahu still faces a lengthy corruption trial, and Israeli President Isaac Herzog is trying to reach a plea bargain in the case, which could see Netanyahu, 76, withdraw from the political scene as part of the deal.
This deal has been on the table since his trial began six years ago, but it's unclear whether he will accept it. Netanyahu's health could also pose a problem; he recently revealed he was cured of prostate cancer and underwent pacemaker implantation in 2023.
Israel is still at war in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon, and with Iran, fronts that remain tense and volatile, which could affect the elections.
