Presidencies of Libya Political stability or a return to the specter of war?

Days before the date of the Libyan presidential elections, which will be held on December 24, the decision to hold them on the date or not is still the subject of unresolved questions, and a debate is raging between the contesting parties.

Technically, the Libyan commission did not adhere to the dates set by the election calendar, as it did not disclose its final regulations, while the stage of submitting appeals against presidential candidates and deciding on them was supposed to end on Saturday, December 4, and the next day the High Electoral Commission announces The final list of candidates, leaving about 20 days for the electoral campaign period.

On the other hand, several international reports warn of the expected transformation of the electoral race into an armed conflict, which will plunge the country into the clutches of what it is trying to get out of through these elections, citing renewed clashes on the ground and the division of foreign interests over the candidates.

Postponement controversy

Speaking to Anadolu Agency on Sunday, the head of the High National Elections Commission, Imad al-Sayeh, denied that the Libyan High Elections Commission had "any technical problem in holding the elections on time" on December 24. This comes in response to the statements made by the head of the parliamentary committee in charge of following up on the electoral process, Hadi al-Saghir, about the "inevitability" of postponing the elections.

Al-Sayeh said: "Technically, we do not have any problem with holding the elections on time," adding that in the event of the postponement of the elections, "the House of Representatives is the one who announces, not the commission," because "it is not within our competence to announce the postponement, and whoever issued the execution order is the one who issues an order." The endowment is the one who decides the polling day, so what about the decision to postpone?”, without further details. As this talk reveals about the existing dispute between the Commission and Parliament on this matter.

The head of the parliamentary committee in charge of following up on the electoral process, Hadi al-Saghir, said on Friday that "the postponement of the elections has become a foregone conclusion and a reality," according to what was reported by the Libyan "February" channel, due to its authority to manage the electoral process. Specified or not,” according to a previous statement confirmed by it. Al-Hadi Al-Saghir revealed that "on December 27, the parliament will hold a public session, in coordination with the commission, to announce the official date of the elections."

Al-Saghir added that "the official announcement of the postponement of the elections will be accompanied by the announcement of the formation of a new government that satisfies all parties," which means the determination of a group of deputies to remove the current prime minister, Abdel Hamid Dabaiba. This was confirmed by Member of Parliament Saeed Amgi, in an interview with the American "Al-Hurra" website, saying that "the next parliamentary session aims to remove Abdel Hamid Dabaiba (head of the government) from power to assign a new figure to form the government, in accordance with the Geneva decisions."

The cities of Benghazi and Tripoli have witnessed protests condemning the postponement of the elections and demanding that they be held on time. The protesters carried banners reading "No to the postponement of the elections" and "The results of the elections must be accepted." Faiza al-Gaddafi, a member of the "No to Postponing the Elections" campaign, told Anadolu Agency, "We demand that the elections not be postponed. She added, "We do not allow the elections to be postponed for long periods, because the postponement is harmful to Libya and results in fragmentation and division. We demand the elections on time so that Libya returns to its sovereignty."

Threats to return to war

In a report published by the British newspaper, “The Independent on Sunday”, entitled “Why the Libyan elections might lead to incitement to the violence that was supposed to end?”, its writer said that “whatever the case, whether (elections) were held or not, there are risks of violence political". The writer based this on a number of indicators on the ground, most notably the renewed spread of armed men and the exchange of threats between them. The forces loyal to Khalifa Haftar, the same candidate, are also massing their forces in the south ahead of the UN-sponsored parliamentary and presidential elections.

In the same context, violent clashes erupted recently between Khalifa Haftar's forces and the splintered 116th Brigade in the southern city of Sebha, after the former seized police cars that the unity government had sent to the city's security. While observers are likely to have an undeclared rapprochement between the dissident battalion that controls the city and supporters of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, they justify this by Gaddafi entering Sabha in broad daylight under security protection, submitting his candidacy papers for the presidential elections and then leaving.

Reports say that the recent clashes revealed that the conflict between Gaddafi the son and Haftar is escalating, and is likely at any moment to turn into an open war between the two parties, with Saif al-Islam and al-Qabal supporting him determination to expel Haftar's forces from the south. He also revealed a possible change in the map of international stakes on the conflicting parties in Libya, with references to Russia's support for the son of the ousted president, and in return Washington's hostility to him.

An Anadolu Agency report considers that "this US-Russian dispute over Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi's candidacy for the presidency is another reason for postponing the elections." It quotes the statements of the head of the Libyan High Council of State, Khaled Al-Mashri, as saying: "External interference in the Libyan elections has reached an unacceptable level." In its conclusion, the report concludes that "postponing the elections to the date of December 24 may delay the outbreak of fighting in the south between Haftar's militias and Russia-backed Gaddafi supporters, but it does not provide solutions for the future."