China's massive money printing policy failed 29 cities' residential sales fell by 50%

The People's Bank of China has recently cut RRR and interest rates several times and eased monetary policy. However, apart from having a short-term stimulus to the stock market, the real estate market has been sluggish. A new research report on the real estate market shows that in January this year, the overall transaction volume of residential buildings in 29 key cities in China fell by nearly 50% year-on-year.

According to a report issued by the Crane Real Estate Research Center on the first day of the first lunar month (February 1), the overall transaction volume of 29 key cities in China was 14.29 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 46%. The total transaction volume in the four cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen was 2.85 million square meters, which fell by 38% and 21% respectively. Only Shanghai is a special case, with 1.3 million square meters of transactions in a single month, up 43% month-on-month, reaching a new high since February last year. As for the second- and third-tier cities, the total transaction volume was 11.43 million square meters, down 41% month-on-month and 47% year-on-year, and the transaction volume was cut in half.

According to the data of the Middle Finger Research Institute, in January, the average price of new houses in 100 cities was 16,000 yuan per square meter, and the price showed a "three consecutive declines" month-on-month. In 13 cities, including Guiyang, Kunming, Beihai, Harbin, Nanning, Nanchang, and Yantai, both new and second-hand housing fell for three consecutive months.

A large number of homeowners are eager to withdraw from the real estate market to cope with the economic difficulties

The People's Bank of China cut interest rates several times late last year and eased bank lending, but the real estate market remains sluggish.

In an interview with Radio Free Asia on Friday (4th), Ms. Zhang, a real estate investor in Guangdong, said that China's housing prices have been rising for many years, and 70% of the people's assets are concentrated in houses. Most people want to sell their houses for cash in the near future: "First, the housing price is high and the supply is large; second, the overall economic environment is not good, and many people have difficulty finding employment. Government policies have changed again and again, and the mortgage has been tightened before. Lending has been stimulated again this year, and people who want to improve their living conditions are waiting for property prices to fall before buying a house.”

In order to save the real estate market, the People's Bank of China and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission have asked banks to ease mortgages and speed up mortgage approvals, but this has not helped stimulate people's desire to buy a house. According to data, among the 103 key cities monitored in January, the mainstream first home loan interest rate was 5.56%, and the second home loan interest rate was 5.84%, both down 8 basis points from the previous month.

The Economist: The downward trend of the real estate market is difficult to reverse in the short term

The commander, a financial scholar, told this station that the weakening of China's real estate market will continue this year: "It is roughly the continuation of the decline in the real estate market last year. The Chinese government has always emphasized that housing should not be speculated. Now a large number of housing transactions have fallen, that is, many houses are It is for speculation, not for living. These houses that were used for speculation have now lost policy support, leading to a downturn in the market, which is difficult to reverse in the short term.”

Data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Information Platform shows that in January this year, only 1,557 second-hand commercial housing units were sold in Shenzhen, with a transaction area of ​​147,300 square meters, down 75.04% year-on-year; All-time low.

Economic commentator Mr. Chen told this station that in the past year, various industries in China have declined, the number of unemployed people has increased, the purchasing power of the people has dropped rapidly, and the decline in housing transactions is an inevitable phenomenon.

For example, he said: "Some production industries such as catering, tourism, and manufacturing are now in extreme depression. Banks are not having a good time now. Many banks are reducing branches and operating conservatively. Also, large real estate companies All are in debt crisis, and those small and medium-sized real estate companies are facing even greater difficulties. The enthusiasm of the people to buy houses has been far lower than expected.”

Real estate developers' interest in land investment has greatly decreased, and the pass-through auction rate has increased

According to a report released by Crane Real Estate Research Center, in the third round of centralized land auctions in Shenzhen, Suzhou, Ningbo and Wuxi, the premium rate hit a record low of 23% in January, and the unsold rate of land auctions rose to 21%.

A week ago, many places in China introduced policies to support housing consumption. For example, Anhui Province has introduced measures to guide the reduction of the down payment ratio for real estate, etc.; 18 cities including Zhuzhou, Zigong, Nanning, Baoding, Yulin, Ma'anshan have also introduced policies such as relaxing the settlement restrictions and lowering the provident fund down payment ratio.

Reporter: Qiao Long Editor in charge: Wen Xiaoping, He Ping Web editor: Ruizhe 

Difficult time for Muslims, poor are ignored in the budget

View summary of thoughts of eminent personalities like TN Nainan, P Chidambaram, S Gurumurthy, Aditi Phadnis

Tough times for Muslims

Mukul Keswan writes in the Telegraph that it is a difficult time for Muslims in India that neither the government nor the civil society is ready to give them the benefit of the doubt. In any dispute, it is assumed that the guilty will be a Muslim. Questions are asked from them. The latest example is Asaduddin Owaisi who was attacked in Meerut while returning to Delhi after campaigning in Uttar Pradesh.

A case of murder is already registered against one of the attackers and the pictures show that he has been related to the people of Bharatiya Janata Party. ADG Prashant Kumar says, “The accused has said that his (Asaduddin Owaisi) statement in a particular area had hurt him.” Not even two months have passed since the Dharma Sansad in Haridwar called for a massacre of Muslims. But, the ADG has faith in the statement of the accused.

Mukul Keswan writes that the main political parties like Congress, BSP, SP also showed slowness in condemning the attack on Owaisi. Despite being the target of bullets, Owaisi, who has been an MP for decades, did not get the benefit of doubt in any way. The author also cites the example of the Delhi riots where Muslims had to face a different kind of treatment in spite of overwhelming support to the Aam Aadmi Party.

The issue of banning girls from wearing hijab in Karnataka is also one-sided. Religious privileges come under the same rule for all. Sikhs have got respect from the whole world in this fight. Why can't Muslim girls come to college with a hijab when they can join the army with a turban? If not, it is discrimination against Muslims. Thinking is being imposed in the case of hijab or in the case of Owaisi. Instead of giving them the benefit of doubt, partisan behavior is being imposed on them.

Capitalist budget ignoring the poor

P Chidambaram has written in the Indian Express that three driving forces are needed to make a country a progressive, happy and pluralistic country – employment, welfare and wealth. The current figure of workforce in India is ninety four crore and the youth looking for employment, ie LFPR, is thirty-seven percent i.e. 52 crore population.

The philosophy of Narendra Modi, who hopes to create two crore jobs every year, has changed if he comes to power. Unemployment has increased in the last seven years. The pandemic and the lockdown have further increased unemployment. Lakhs of jobs have been snatched away.

Chidambaram writes that the concept of welfare includes livelihood, job, food, health, education, social security and leisure and entertainment etc. MGNREGA aims to solve the problem of livelihood while the National Food Security Act aims to tackle the menace of hunger, free government health services and health insurance aims to solve the health care challenge. Similarly, the objective of the Right to Education is related to the challenge of education.

All the above objectives have been harmed by cutting the subsidy bill by 27 per cent in the general budget. Chidambaram writes that the matter of welfare has been blown into the air. The authors are in favor of creation of wealth but not in favor of preserving it. Referring to the increasing inequality, the author believes that it has to be ended. The author has termed the general budget as a capitalist budget, in which the poor have been ignored.

The budget surprised the opposition

S Gurumurthy has written in the New Indian Express that many things happened for the first time in the Union Budget of 2022-23. No one obstructed the Finance Minister's speech, the budget did not show anything like populism in view of the elections, Rahul Gandhi got into the car without reacting to the budget, the attack prepared by the opposition after announcements like subsidy. Remained.

Many other similar things happened. Pre-Budget figures show that in 2021, savings of common households increased by Rs 7 lakh crore while debt increased by Rs 18 thousand crore. After April 2021, 39 thousand crore rupees came in the Jan Dhan account of 45 crore poor people in just 9 months. These figures show that people are avoiding spending.

S Gurumurthy writes that the Finance Minister has planned to increase capital expenditure by 34 percent, due to which the economy will rise. This move will create demand worth Rs 2 lakh crore. Appropriate steps have also been taken by extending the guarantee of credit to MSMEs.

Announcements like 7.5 lakh crores spent on public capital, 48 thousand crores allocation for houses, 1 lakh crores of beeage free loans to state governments, 78 thousand crores on rural employment guarantee are also important. The government has put a check on risky subsidy schemes. The budget has been prepared keeping in mind 2047. The author quoted SBI's report as saying that after demonetisation, the parallel economy has come down to the level of 15-20 percent, which used to be 52 percent earlier.

Growth rate is not the solution to all problems

TN Nainen writes in Business Standard that in the last years, we have got success on the economic front. We have also settled the interest burden. Yet the high fiscal deficit, public debt and interest on debt remain major problems. Fast economic growth is the solution to all problems. The average economic growth in the three years from 2020 to 2023 may remain at a modest level of 3.4 percent. Private sector investment and credit growth have both been limited.

Tien Nienon does not consider rapid economic growth alone as the solution to the problem. Economic development is meaningless without achieving achievements in areas such as employment, poverty, environment, education and health. The general budget is not vocal about these issues. Regarding economic development in the 'K' shape, the government believes that this problem will end or it can be dealt with by increasing economic growth continuously.

KCR in the mood to clash with the Center

Aditi Phadnis writes in Business Standard that the tussle between Telangana Rashtra Samithi and BJP is increasing. K Chandrashekhar Rao seems to be taking the initiative while trying to become the axis of non-BJP and non-Congress politics. After the Huzurabad assembly by-election, this stand of KCR is being seen after the increased tussle with the BJP. By criticizing the Union Budget and showing an aggressive stance against Prime Minister Narendra Modi, KCR has tried to give a new height to the BJP protest. Now KCR is trying to start a new debate on federalism by bringing non-BJP ruled states on one platform.

KCR left Telugu Desam and formed TRS. Along with Congress, he was also a part of UPA. Later, on the demand of separate Telangana, he broke away from the UPA government and his contribution to a separate Telangana is considered. KCR has a strong penetration among the common people. But, now it has also been decided that the main threat to KCR is from BJP.

That's why they are preparing for a fight with BJP. KCR is going to host the meeting of former bureaucrats of the country. Its purpose is also to oppose the BJP government sitting at the center and against this opposition, KCR is also seen preparing for the assembly elections in 2023.