A recent report published by Bloomberg predicted that the world has a $1 trillion La Nina problem and is sure to see another year of weather disasters destroying homes, destroying crops, disrupting shipping and threatening lives.
From the extreme drought that hit Europe and dried up its rivers, through the extreme heat and wildfires in the United States and the mega drought in Brazil and Argentina, to the deadly floods in Pakistan and torrential rains in Australia and Indonesia, all events show that the Earth has entered an advanced and severe phase of weather disasters.
As climate change pushes weather disasters to new extremes, La Nina, a weather phenomenon, has been the driver of chaos since mid-2020. Now the planet stands on the cusp of something that has happened only twice since 1950, three years ago. Lanina."
According to experts quoted by Bloomberg , another year of "Lanina" means that the world is heading towards a trillion dollars in disaster weather damage by 2023. This means that floods, droughts, storms and fires will destroy more homes, destroy more crops, as well as disrupt transportation, hitting supply chains, cutting off energy supplies, and, ultimately, ending lives.
"Lanina" phenomenon
It's hard to imagine that all this devastation is due to just a slight dip in temperatures in the sparkling blue waters of the Pacific Ocean.
The term "Lanina", which in Spanish means "little girl", refers to the phenomenon of irregular periodic change in winds and temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate in many tropical and subtropical regions. The phase of sea temperature increase is known as El Niño, while the cooling phase is known as La Niña.
Laninas recur every 3 to 7 years and usually last from 9 to 12 months to 2 years. According to new forecasts from the US Climate Prediction Center, the chances of the tropical Pacific Ocean remaining cold through October have risen to 97%, while the chances of La Niña staying until January are 80%.
One of the most powerful "Lanina" events was recorded in 1988-1989 when ocean temperatures fell 7 degrees Fahrenheit below normal. The most recent episode of Lanina cases occurred in late 2016, and some evidence of the Lanina phenomenon was seen in January 2018.
Trillion dollars in damages
The costs of droughts, winter storms and hurricanes caused by La Niña can run into the tens of billions, but weather extremes are so common that it is difficult to calculate the damages of consecutive weather events. The best measure is by the losses scheduled by the insurance companies.
Weather disasters cost the world $268 billion in 2020, and another $329 billion in 2021, according to data and research firm Aon.
If the upcoming period resembles the chaos brought about by La Niña in 2020 and 2021, the total during the Tri-Ride will likely approach, or perhaps exceed, $1 trillion by the end of 2023. These damage forecasts are directly related to the La Niña phenomenon, along with the change climatic.
This weather bill, which often accounts for property losses and crop damage, does not fully capture the La Niña spillovers. These extremes of weather affect the price of everything from a cup of coffee to coal used to make steel. When these costs rise, they fuel inflation. Besides the major wars, "Lanina" is the only event that has ambiguity in the parameters of global markets, industries and economies.
What does climate change have to do with La Niña?
Scientists are investigating whether climate change is responsible for the increased potential for La Niña. Richard Seager, a research professor at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, said he and his colleagues believe that rising greenhouse gases in the atmosphere increases the potential for a strong La Niña.
Seeger described the phenomenon: "Lanina is like the conductor of a weather symphony." However, more research is needed to fully understand the patterns.
While La Niña is a phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean, it also affects hurricanes in the Atlantic during storm season, which falls in August, September and October. Changing weather patterns cut a lot of winds in the Caribbean and elsewhere across the basin, allowing more Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms to form and grow stronger.
The warm waters pushed east by the Lanina also led to the death of hundreds of small penguins that washed up on New Zealand's shores. While droughts in South America caused widespread crop failure, heavy rains in Australia delayed the planting of wheat and barley, and thus lowered its quality.
In a related context, Fahad Saeed, the regional lead in South Asia and the Middle East for climate analytics, said that weather patterns can be directly linked to La Niña, and explained, "The brutal floods in Pakistan and elsewhere did not happen by chance."
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