After 30 years of ups and downs, why is China’s stock market struggling to recover? The picture shows the Beijing Stock Exchange on February 8.
Cao Xin, the founder of Shanghai Tianli Private Equity, who is known as the god of private equity in China, was reported to have passed away two years ago, which made investors sad. Earlier this year, the TV series "Flowers" recreated the beginning of reform and opening up in the 1990s . China's stock market was growing wildly and everyone had endless hopes. More than 30 years later, the Chinese stock market is still struggling at more than 3,000 points. Is the Chinese stock market all blooming, or is it poised for growth?
Shanghai's "private equity god" Cao Xin is reported to have passed away. Foreign media: It may be related to the bailout of loan sharks.
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On the 7th of this month , the Financial Associated Press quoted people familiar with the matter as reporting that Cao Xin, the founder of Tianli ( Shanghai ) Asset Management Co., Ltd., passed away on January 31 due to personal mental health reasons. People familiar with the matter said, " Tianli is not a quantitative private equity company, and the leveraged investment of the Internet is not any business of the company. Tianli is engaged in primary market equity venture capital. It was established in 2016. At present, the company's products are all within the duration of its existence and there are no new additions." Any secondary market investment. ”
Senior banker and writer, the Weibo account " Yuanye FWC " forwarded this news saying that since the micro-cap index reached a historical high on January 5 , 2024 , it has entered a roller coaster trend. Since then, there has been a sharp correction. Since the beginning of the year, more than a In the past month, the micro-cap index has retraced more than 45% , almost halving.
The micro-cap stock index mainly includes all A -share stocks with a market capitalization of the bottom 400 , excluding ST , *ST , delisting stocks, and stocks that have not been opened for IPO, and the ingredients are updated daily.
What happened to Cao Xin is in the hearts of investors. The TV series "Flowers" not only has Mr. Bao bet on stocks and become rich suddenly, but the fate of Mr. A , the main stock market owner, is not far away. However, everyone on the Yellow River Road is envious of Mr. Bao's success. The foreman of the restaurant can also make a small fortune by buying stocks based on insider information. It is no wonder that everyone around him wants to follow Mr. Bao's footsteps and weave the dream of getting rich overnight. .
"Yang Wanwan" gave a lecture and the chefs and waiters of Peace Hotel listened.
" At the time of "Flowers", mainland China was in a reckless stage, " Zhu Chengzhi, chairman of Wanbao Investment Consulting in Taiwan, once witnessed a grand event in Shanghai that was like the plot of "Flowers". He recalled that in early 1992 , Deng Xiaoping delivered a speech on his southern tour and established the line of reform and opening up. He emphasized that " development is the last word . " The whole world watched China's changes with wide eyes.
In March of that year , Zhu Chengzhi and Yang Huaiding, who had the title of " China's No. 1 Shareholder " , had dinner on the top floor of the Peace Hotel where "Flowers" was filmed. He described Yang Huaiding, known as " Yang Million " , as being surrounded by six or seven people. The people around him all held the same Motorola Black King Kong mobile phones as in the show. Many of them had their ears curiously pressed together, trying to speak from this major businessman. Get the " Getting Rich Code " .
" He had dinner with us, and we invited him to give a speech. All the chefs of the Peace Hotel were eavesdropping at the door, and the service staff were packed. The scene was very strange. There were two tables inside and a bunch of people gathered outside. " Zhu Chengzhi restored the " spectacle " of the dinner party .
Zhu Chengzhi said that he vaguely remembered the business card handed over by Yang Huaiding. The reverse side showed the entire Huangpu River in orange monochrome printing, and the words " The first crab eater in the Shanghai stock market " on the back still left a deep impression on him. " The phrase ' eating crabs ' appeared in the first two episodes of "Flowers " , which means that I dare to take risks, because crabs are not easy to eat. "
He said that treasury bonds were initially popular in China. During Deng Xiaoping's southern tour, even the securities market entered the reform and opening up phase. Only then did the so-called lottery of new stocks in the drama "Flowers" occur. At that time, the Shanghai Securities Company was like a drama. There was an iron gate outside the roadside, and people could only buy and sell stocks and place orders on site.
" In that era, all walks of life moved in, and there was a real estate market and a stock market. But in China now, instead of all walks of life moving in, they are moving out of mainland China, " Zhu Chengzhi added.
The last post on Weibo by Cao Xin (also known as Cao Bangxun), founder of Shanghai Tianli Private Equity, was about visiting Jakarta, Indonesia, to inspect the overseas market. He also said, “This year we will start to focus on overseas.” (Weibo)
The last post on Weibo by Cao Xin (also known as Cao Bangxun), founder of Shanghai Tianli Private Equity, was about visiting Jakarta, Indonesia, to inspect the overseas market. He also said, “This year we will start to focus on overseas.” (Weibo)
In 1992, the gap between the Chinese and American stock markets was less than 2,000 points. In 2024, it will be a world of difference.
May 21 , 1992 is a day of great historical significance for Chinese investors. "People's Daily" recorded " Little People Looking Back at China's Stock Market for 20 Years " and wrote, " The Shanghai stock market fully liberalized stock prices, and the Shanghai Composite Index rushed to 1,334 points from 623 points the day before . All investors were delighted, and stock assets doubled overnight. "
Affected by the Gulf War in the 1990s , Zhu Chengzhi pointed out that in January 1992 , the Dow Jones Index in the United States was only about 3,200 points, but now the Dow Jones Index has exceeded 38,000 points and has reached record highs nine times this year. In contrast, Shanghai A -shares have defended themselves from 3,000 points and hit bottom frequently.
" Why mainland China cannot have such a big increase? On the one hand, it is a system problem; on the other hand, after mainland China had the Shanghai Exchange, it later developed the Shenzhen Exchange, and at one time it actively developed the Beijing Innovation Board. In the past few years, it has been obvious that mainland China has The leadership team did not pay much attention to the vitality of the economy and used a lot of controls. Now we know that the problem is big. "
China's stock market has been hovering at 3,000 points for a long time
Liu Jipeng, dean of the Capital Finance Research Institute of China University of Political Science and Law, pointed out at the Hexun Finance Annual Conference in December last year that China’s capital market is a market with unfair wealth distribution and lack of justice since the reform and opening up. China's stock market has been hovering around 3,000 points for 16 years , and most people cannot generate wealth effects in the capital market. He was banned from the entire internet for this.
Chinese finance scholar He Jiangbing analyzed in an interview with this station that the purpose of China's establishment of the stock market in 1991 was to alleviate poverty for state-owned enterprises and central enterprises. " The purpose of our establishment of A- shares is not to make you rich or ordinary people to make money. " He said that the second purpose of the stock market is to diversify risks for state-owned enterprises, because in the 1990s , state-owned enterprises and central enterprises indirectly financed through banks. The risks are all borne by the banks, which means the state pays the bill. The establishment of the stock market is to let the common people pay the bills.
He Jiangbing further explained that the establishment of the Shenzhen Exchange was mainly to solve difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises and private enterprises, and also to solve the risks of small and medium-sized banks; as for the Beijing Growth Enterprise Market, which was established in recent years, it has a deeper purpose. " The GEM is the realization of the wealth of the powerful. The powerful are in power and require companies to be listed so that they can realize their cash. "
He mentioned that the stock exchange is a product of the Western world, and China has only half-learned it. The listing system is distorted and beneficial to the powerful. Take the U.S. or Hong Kong Securities Regulatory Commission as an example. They are composed of lawyers, accountants and other experts to review, but in the China Securities Regulatory Commission, they are players and referees. " Our China Securities Regulatory Commission is composed of a few old men and women. They review themselves. Whether or not they can be listed is not decided by the exchange. "
There is a problem in the supervision between local governments and real estate companies in China
Cheng Xiaonong, a financial scholar living in the United States, also pointed out that there are problems with the supervision of China's stock market. He told this station that Chinese companies are operating poorly and are full of speculation. Many entrepreneurs in China are nouveau riche. They rush to where they can cheat and take risks, and they do not hesitate to owe huge debts. They will go bankrupt if they fail to pay back the money. " China does not have normal internal supervision of enterprises, and the government does not provide adequate supervision and warnings to enterprises with poor operations. "
On the other hand, he believes that China's stock market is just a tool for local governments to make money. If local governments want to promote real estate development and speculate on land prices, it is inconvenient for the government to step in, so real estate companies will do the job. Local governments do not care about the operating performance of real estate companies and blindly support real estate companies in obtaining large amounts of loans from banks. “ Real estate companies believe that as long as they get land, have local government support behind them, and collude with each other, they can buy endless land. For local governments, the more houses they build and the more they make, they can’t worry about the future. "
China's stock market has been sluggish in recent years, and He Jiangbing attributed it to the most fundamental problem. " Only in a market economy environment can the economy develop; in a regulated economy, there should be no exchanges, and stocks should fall. During an economic downturn, it is just trying to catch fish. "
The Chinese stock market has been blooming for more than 30 years. After the spring of 2024 , whether it is time to buy the dip or admit losses and get out, Chinese stock investors must also hope that there is an " uncle " who can give guidance.
In Kachin State, militia groups are forcibly recruiting new people
Lisu militia led by U Shwe Min in Wyand Maw Township, Kachin State. Residents say that the Khao Lan Phu (indigenous) militia in Putao District and the Shanni National Army (SNA) in Mo Nying Township are forcibly recruiting new recruits.
On January 22, Shanni SNA troops arrested pedestrians in Nan Moon village of Indawgy region. A local resident, who did not want to be named for security reasons, told RFA that there have been displacements through village administrators.
"The governors also arrested those they found on the road, He said the same. Of course, everyone who passes by is arrested. They catch and take everything time and time again. Because of the difficulty, Nan Moon has run away. They don't even dare to stay in Nan Moon Village anymore, they have run away."
"Since the middle of last January, every household in Putao City has been organizing to serve in the military."
Hoping City He said that pedestrians are being arrested in the outskirts of Moyin City and in Nanma City as well. I heard from a local who asked to be named for security reasons that those who did not want to join the People's Army had to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars.
"Since Indawgyi is their area, that's why they say they have to rule it. After stopping all the passers-by, they called the person they wanted, like that. Some were released. Among those who were released, some said that they had to pay about ten thousand dollars. They said they were asking for 30,000,000.
The Khao Lan Phu (indigenous) militia group, led by U Tang Gutan, has been organizing every household in Putao to serve in the military since mid-January, said a resident who wished to remain anonymous.
“It's been two weeks. They started organizing militia more than usual. After entering the villages, they began to organize young people to join the militia. After that, the chase is done on the upper Shangkong side. But currently, the arrests are people who graduated from militia training in the past."
As the military council army and militia retreated from Inkhagar village in Machanbot township, Putao district in December. In January 2024, the Kachin Liberation Army (KIA) and the PDF also took over the military council-affiliated Khor Thi Dam militia camp in Khao Lan Phu Township.
In Wyand Maw Township, a local resident who did not want to be named said that the militia group led by U Shwe Min is gathering new people.
"They are Wuyang Gate, At Sang bus station, At the new gate of Aung Miu, During the time of the new people, the Lisu people were caught there. There is a new group of people."
the elderly, He said that mothers of children were also arrested and forced to return to their families with young middle-class people who were running away from them.
SNA spokesperson, Colonel Sai Aung Main, said that local residents are recruiting new recruits. RFA contacted the militia leader U Shwe Min and Kachin State Spokesperson Social Minister U Thant Zinko by phone, but there was no response. Moe Kaung Township People's Hluttaw Representative U Win Naing said that this action is forcing the people to fight each other.
"The militias will drag our people to Zut. Whether they want it or not, they will be trained to be stubborn. Weapons will be installed. In the end, I understand that it is a plan to force the members of the revolution to sweep the dirt from the house."
If the militia groups are really working for the people, the locals are asking them not to recruit new recruits, which is a hardship for the people.